Originally posted on June 10, 2026 by the New Hope Network.
See how balancing organic produce inventory through accurate forecasting helps merchandisers avoid shrink, meet shopper needs and boost sales.
How much organic produce is enough?
That is the riddle that fruit and vegetable merchandisers must solve if they are to have the optimal amounts of products in stores to meet shopper demands.
Such forecasting is also vital for avoiding shrink, out of stocks and subsequently, lost sales, says Dan Avakian, a retail merchandising and communications consultant at FreshXperts, a Parkville, Missouri-based consortium of consultants for the North American fresh produce industry.
Operators that underbuy risk having empty displays and disgruntled shoppers, while purchasing too much inventory can result in spoilage from unsold products, he states. “Missing the call with organics usually means missing the sale altogether,” Avakian notes. “Getting the forecast right matters.”
Demand forecasting is more important for organic produce than most other fresh categories because of the products’ shorter shelf life and high perishability, says Randy Riley, co-owner of GoldenSun Insights, a Cincinnati-based fresh produce marketing and strategies firm.
“Organic shoppers are often habitual and repeated out of stocks can cause permanent product switching,” he states, “Forecast accuracy directly impacts shrink, on-shelf availability, margin and repeat trips, which are the core economics of the department.”
Operators can better pinpoint produce requirements by analyzing the potential impact of such variables as price, promotions, seasonality, holidays, special events and local demographics, while also considering how displays, features, coupons and price changes may shift demand, Riley states.“Demand for organic can swing based on the price spread versus conventional produce and household budgets,” he notes.
Demand volatility and perishability are significant issues that merchandisers also must weigh when determining the necessary inventory, Riley says. “Small shifts in demand can become big shrink risks,” he states.
Up close and personal
Observing shopper in-store behavior also is an essential element for accurate forecasting, Avakian notes. “The best forecasts happen when retailers back data up with hands-on observation,” he says. “That means looking at what is moving, what shoppers are picking over and what customers are asking for. Data points you in the right direction, but the sales floor confirms it.”
Meeting demand forecasts can be challenging, however, as available supplies from growers are often inconsistent; lead times for receiving certain items may be lengthy; and shopper requirements can shift quickly due to weather, promotions or health trends, Avakian states. “Weather impacts harvest quality and quantity and supplier fill rates can fluctuate,” Riley adds.
Operational execution is a major issue as well, as even the best forecasts fail if merchandisers do not place orders correctly; have late arriving deliveries; fail to stock displays quickly; and rotate products inconsistently, Riley says.
Produce manager commitment and staff expertise is vital too, as “experienced eyes often catch demand changes and supply issues before the numbers do,” Avakian says. Produce department employees, he notes, have the key responsibility for keeping products available, fresh and moving while still protecting margins.
“All the data in the world does not matter if you do not have the right people at the end of the line on the sales floor,” Avakian states. “Stores need to do a better job with incentives, training and retention. The same problems just keep cycling through and nothing ever gets fixed when there is constant staff turnover.”
A tight ship
Retail operators also have the important task of keeping supplies tight to avoid having excess inventory that can result in shrink, he says. That requires a focus on the fast-moving core items while ordering products more frequently instead of “swinging big” less often and staying in close communication with suppliers “so there are no surprises,” Avakian states.
Frequent inventory planning mistakes include offering too many organic selections instead of concentrating on the best-selling items; not considering supply availability before launching promotions; and keeping “bad” forecasts in place too long, he notes. “Bad data, overpromoting or too many SKUs can quickly lead to availability gaps or excess inventory,” Avakian says.
Other misjudgments involve using the previous week’s sales to determine current demand while ignoring stockouts and treating all organic SKUs in the same manner, Riley states. “Different spoilage curves, velocity and substitution patterns require different replenishment rules,” he says.
In addition, a failure to conduct “postmortems” on activities that resulted in shrink, out of stocks and poor promotion performance can lead operators to repeat the same planning errors, Riley notes.
