Posted  30 Oct, 2019 
In: Articles

Originally published in the October 28, 2019 edition of Agri-News

Jason Wood, provincial livestock market analyst with Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, examines the markets.

Wood says that over the next few years, the production, import and export movements of global protein are going to see significant change.

“A main driver is the rapid spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) that we are seeing in Asia and how this event is going to change traditional protein flows and consumption levels.”

Globally, the production of beef and veal is forecast to increase 1% in 2020 to 61.9 million metric tonnes.

“The largest increases in beef production are expected in Brazil at 6% and 3% in both the U.S. and Argentina,” he says. “Beef production is forecast to decline 3.3% in China, 9.6% in Australia and 1.6% in the EU.”

Global production of chicken meat is forecast to increase 4% in 2020 to 103.5 million metric tonnes.

He says that the largest chicken production increases will be seen in Brazil, the EU, the U.S. and China.

“China is expected to account for more than half of the year over year increase in global chicken meat production.”

As for global pork production, the forecast is a decline of 10% in 2020 to 95.2 million metric tonnes, with chicken production surpassing pork.

“The largest pork production declines will come from China at -25%, Philippines at -16% and Vietnam at -6%,” he says. “However, pork production increases are expected in Brazil at 5%, the U.S. and Mexico at 4% and Russia at 3%”.

“When looking at Chinese pork production, the 25% decline in 2020 is compared to 2019, but when compared to pre-ASF values the decline is 36%. It is a large shift for Chinese consumption patterns and volumes.”

Wood notes that Canadian protein production estimates for 2020 show beef and veal production to be steady near 1.3 million metric tonnes. He says that pork production is estimated to be just over 2 million metric tonnes, and chicken is projected to be up at around 1.3 million metric tonnes.

He adds that global protein production levels changes will effect consumption rates, especially in countries affected by ASF.

Looking at data from the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service, Wood says that it shows a forecasted decline of 12% in total Chinese per capita meat consumption in 2020 – including pork, beef and chicken.

“Breaking the three proteins down shows an increase of 3% for beef and 15% for chicken consumption with a 22% decline in pork consumption.”

He notes that in South Korea, beef, pork and chicken consumption is expected to increase 3% overall as strong biosecurity is expected to limit the impact of ASF outbreaks. Forecast consumption increases of 2% for beef, 3% for pork and 4% for chicken in South Korea.

“For the Philippines, chicken is expected to exceed pork consumption in 2020 on increased production and import of chicken,” he adds. “Total consumption of the three meats is forecast to decline just 1% with chicken increasing 13% while beef and pork will decline 7% and 10% respectively.”

In Vietnam, he says that an overall decline of 2% is expected in 2020 for beef, pork and chicken consumption.

“Consumption is expected to increase 4% for beef and 6% for chicken but pork is forecast to decline 5% year over year.”

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